Where are Aged Care Services Needed in NSW - Small Area Projections of Care Needs and Capacity for Self Provision of Older Australians
The aged care sector is responding to a changing social and economic environment but is the Industry well positioned to meet the challenges associated with population ageing and the future needs of the ageing baby boomers? At the moment, neither the Government nor the Aged Care Industry have adequate strategic planning and decision-support tools for forecasting the future demand for aged care services by older Australians; identifying areas of Australia where the supply of services is unlikely to meet need; estimating the expected cost of such services; and the financial capacity of older Australians to bear a greater share of those costs. In addition, such estimates have not been available at a detailed regional or small area level. NATSEM has developed a spatial microsimulation model - known as CareMod - to assist in addressing these key issues. This paper provides an overview of the technical development of CareMod, including a description of the model's data base, the approach taken to modelling disability levels and need for care, and the regional methodology that has been developed to generate its small area estimates. The paper then provides some preliminary findings regarding the estimated levels of disability and need for care within NSW to illustrate some basic applications of the model, and finally the paper concludes with some comments on future extensions.