The Financial Implications of Ageing for Individuals

Document Information


  • Published: February 2008
  • Author: David Cullen
  • Purpose: NATSEM seminar series
  • Location: NATSEM, University of Canberra, Bruce ACT
  • Comments: David is an Adjunct Associate Professor of Health Economics and Aged Care Policy providing ongoing expertise and insight into the policy priorities of governments to assist researchers working on a number of microsimulation models being developed at NATSEM to contribute to the policy agenda in areas of ageing, health and care requirements, most notably APPSIM, HealthMod and CareMod. With over 10 years experience in economic and statistical analysis in the Australian Public Service, David has an extensive record of applied research in mathematics and health economics and broad experience at senior level in the Department of Health and Ageing in policy development and review in the field of aged care, particularly residential aged care and most recently in structural reform in this area. Contact:
  • Keywords: Aged, aged care, ageing, care, costs, health and retirement


The financial implications for individuals of the changes in health status that are often associated with advancing age are not well understood. This presentation addresses a part of this information lacunae by estimating the likely aged care costs that older Australians can expect to face in retirement. It derives lower bounds on the private aged care costs that several representative individuals can expect to face in retirement by estimating their lifetime risk of entry to permanent residential aged care, the most expensive form of aged care, and their expected length of stay in permanent residential aged care (given that they enter).


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