Small Area Estimates of the Need for Care Among the Aged Population Using the CAREMOD Model

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To plan the effective delivery of aged care services to those still living in their own homes, governments and businesses require reliable small area estimates of the extent of disability, the availability of informal carers and the financial resources of older citizens. The spatial microsimulation model, CAREMOD, was developed to explore the issues of need for aged care at a small area level in New South Wales. It combines the 1998 ABS survey of Ageing, Disability and Carers and the 2001 Census small area data. In this paper, the model has been extended to provide projections of potential care needs in small areas of New South Wales in 2021. The projections consider the effects of population ageing and the changing age-sex structure of small areas by incorporating ABS SLA age-sex medium scenario projections for the next 20 years through a static ageing process of the microdata.

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